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We consider the SO(3) Witten–Reshetikhin–Turaev quantum invariants of random
3–manifolds. When the level r is prime, we show that the asymptotic distribution of
the absolute value of these invariants is given by a Rayleigh distribution which is
independent of the choice of level. Hence the probability that the quantum invariant
certifies the Heegaard genus of a random 3–manifold of a fixed Heegaard genus g is
positive but very small, less than 10−7 except when g ≤ 3. We also examine random
surface bundles over the circle and find the same distribution for quantum invariants
there.
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